NEW DELHI: Amendments to the I-T laws do not seek to tax inherited #gold and #jewelry as also those items that are purchased through disclosed or agriculture income, the government said on Thursday.
The Lok Sabha earlier this week passed the #Taxation Laws (Second Amendment) Bill, which proposes a steep up to 85 per cent tax and penalty on undisclosed wealth that is discovered by tax authorities during search and seizure.
Dispelling rumours that jewellery would be covered under the amended law, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) said the government has not introduced any new provision regarding chargeability of tax on jewellery.
"The jewellery/gold purchased out of disclosed #income or out of exempted income like agricultural income or out of reasonable household savings or legally inherited which has been acquired out of explained sources is neither chargeable to tax under the existing provisions nor under the proposed amended provisions," the CBDT said.
The Bill, which is currently under consideration of the Rajya Sabha, will amend Section 115BBE of the Income Tax Act to provide for a steep 60 per cent tax and a 25 per cent surcharge on it (total 75 per cent) for black money holders.
Another section inserted provides for an additional 10 per cent penalty on being established that the undeclared wealth is unaccounted or #blackmoney, taking the total incidence of levies to 85 per cent.
CBDT said: "Tax rate under section 115BBE is proposed to be increased only for unexplained income as there were reports that the tax evaders are trying to include their undisclosed income in the return of income as business income or income from other sources.
"The provisions of section 115BBE apply mainly in those cases where assets or cash etc. are sought to be declared as 'unexplained cash or asset' or where it is hidden as unsubstantiated business income, and the Assessing Officer detects it as such."
Gold reclaimed the Rs 31,000-mark at the domestic bullion market after fresh offtake from investors and stockists, driven by the black money crackdown in India and a surge in global cues amid Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election.
Silver reclaimed the Rs 45,000 mark by surging Rs 1,390 a kg on heavy speculative rally.
Globally, gold prices jumped nearly five per cent on the Donald Trump victory in the US, prompting a dive in stocks and the dollar.
In India, standard gold (99.5 purity) spurted by Rs 815 to end at Rs 31,145 per 10g, a level not seen since September 20.
Pure gold (99.9 purity) also climbed by a similar margin to close at Rs 31,295 per 10 grams as compared to Rs 30,480 earlier. Silver (.999 fineness) finished at Rs 45,370 a kg from Rs 43,980 on Tuesday; the current level was not seen since September 12.
London spot gold vaulted to a six-week high of $1,337.40 an ounce, up nearly five per cent.
That apart, despite the government having scrapped legal tender of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes, jewellers at the benchmark Zaveri Bazaar here accepted these notes on Wednesday, at a huge premium in the gold price of 10-15 per cent. Deals were also reported at up to 50 per cent premium against high value notes on Wednesday. Noted were also accepted for delivery after two-three days. Many jewellers in the Mumbai suburbs kept their shops open till midnight on Tujesday and sold jewellery with a massive price premium (or discount in cash dealing with Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes).
Many consumers had panicked on Tuesday evening immediately after the announcement and rushed to jewellery shop in the vicinity with their cash. Trade sources believe some small retailers ran out of physical stocks. Many jewellers were quoting a gold price at Rs 34,500–35,000 (for 10g) in early Tuesday trade and making backdated bills. Traders were also heard quoting gold prices up to Rs 45,000 per 10g to panic customers.
“Nothing has changed since yesterday. The acceptance of Rs. 500/1,000 currencies continues, which we would deposit in the bank for their replacement with new ones,” said a jeweller in Zaveri Bazaar, on condition of anonymity.
In the official market, gold initially jumped around Rs 1,000 per 10g in pre-opening trade on Wednesday, following a 3.5 per cent increase in global markets on the Trump victory. Bullion, however, lost half its initial gain in afternoon trade in London, to quote at $1,303 an oz after a high of $1,367 an oz in the morning, following a sharp decline in the dollar against major global currencies. The dollar also recovered part of its initial loss.
At Zaveri Bazaar in the afternoon, the premium for official gold was $12, which on closing had moderated to $3 an oz.
Following reports of what jewellers had been up to, Sreedhar G V, chairman of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, issued an advisory: “We urge jewellers to exercise restraint, caution and follow government-approved norms for transactions during the next few months.”
'The government's decision to ban old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes will see people having more faith in the precious metal than currency notes. Though, the measure is going to be good for the country,” said Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director, RiddiSiddhi Bullions.
City's wholesale and retail market for bullion, Zaveri Bazaar, witnessed lacklustre trade today as sale of gold jewellery slumped owing to scrapping of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes by government as part of its clamp down on black money and corruption.
"After brisk buying at higher rates for gold till late night on Tuesday, the bullion market witnessed lacklustre trading activity today following ban on Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes. People are withholding their purchases of gold jewellery till higher denomination notes will come under circulation," said Ajit Shah, a leading jeweller.
"People are withholding their purchases of gold jewellery till higher denomination notes will come under circulation," said Ajit Shah, a leading jeweller."
The industry is already passing through bad phase due to lower demand despite ongoing wedding season. We hope things will improve in the near future, he said.
The demand for gold during 'Dhanteras', the gold buying festival and Diwali, remained moderate compared to last year.
Retailers in the city blame the slowdown in economy to global factors.
After a muted Navratri and Dusshera, gold demand saw a slight pickup, but it was mostly on the back of discounts and festive offers.
"Government's decision to ban old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes will see people having more faith in the precious metal than the currency notes. Though, the measure has created havoc for a little while, it's going to be good for country," said RiddiSiddhi Bullions Managing Director Mr. Prithviraj Kothari.
But perhaps, the biggest factor affecting domestic demand is the continued push towards regulation and accountability that the government is levelling in general, including the gold market.
Q. 1. How has gold demand trend made a difference with monsoon rainfalls in India and how has it affected the forecast upon the impact of physical gold and silver?
Ans : Finance Minister Arun Jaitley surprised the market by keeping the import duty intact and imposing an excise duty on gold jewellery sales from March 1, leading to a one-and-a-half-month strike by jewellers resulting into a fall in gold demand in India. However, falling interest rates and a better return from bullion so far in 2016 could lure more consumers. So, price fall would trigger more fresh demand coming in resulting into physical offtake to go up. The year 2016 is expected to end in a high note in terms of physical demand of gold.
Past 6 months, gold import figure for half yearly was almost 7.5 billion dollar, which means approximately 180 tonnes. As compared to last year, there is a 50-60% drop down in the market for reasons such as pan card issue, excise duty issue, 10% custom duty which has hugely affected the demand.
After 2 years of El Nino effect, this year monsoon has fared really well with 5% overall rise as compared to last year. This would surely lead to an increase in Rural demand of Yellow metal.
During sowing season, farmers normally sell gold for purchasing of seeds and fertilizers. With normal monsoon, however, they get better kharif output and expectation of higher rabi output. So, normal monsoon rainfalls always give higher chance for consumer demand of gold to improve. Gold demand has been lackluster so far this year with the government’s strict norms on bringing jewellers under excise duty and also mandatory PAN (permanent account number) requirement for cash jewellery purchase beyond a limit. All these acted as a negative factor for gold purchase. But, with normal monsoon rainfalls giving more disposable income at the hands of farmers, who hold nearly 70 per cent of India’s gold holding, would certainly improve demand going forward.
Q. 2. Options trading on MCX is on cards. How is it beneficial for the industry?
Ans : I have been saying this since 3-4 years during the Pre-budget comments and finally it seems that the Options product would be finally introduced. It will be a boon for a bullion trader and jeweller. By using this instrument they can hedge their future position and in a way provide the necessary risk cover. An investor will also be highly benefitted from this instrument. He/she will get a chance to invest in a larger quantity of metal with a lower investment and reap benefits till the expiry date.
Q. 3. What is your forecast for gold and silver prices for Diwali & New Year and how is it beneficial to Indian consumers?
Ans : Gold and silver prices are likely to remain subdued this calendar year on strengthening dollar against major global currencies and a host of other weak fundamentals acting against it. With some intermittent volatility, gold may touch $1200 by the current calendar year end translating thereby Rs 28500 per 10 grams by December. Following the European Central Bank’s official announcement of a withdrawal of bond purchase programme prior to the end of quantitative easing, the dollar is likely to remain strong against major global currencies. With Brexit fear mounting against the United Kingdom with the country’ possible departure from the European Union by 2019, pound sterling has already hit 31-year low. So, strengthening US dollar would create selling pressure in gold resulting into its price to remain weak by Diwali and the New Year.
Indian jewellery sales have fallen since the start of the year, hit by higher gold prices and delayed purchase decisions by consumers who had hoped for a cut in India’s 10 per cent import duty on gold in the national budget. Gold demand in India has remained lower this year with consumers opting for alternative investment avenues including paper gold. So, physical demand of gold was lower so far this year. As data from the Commerce Ministry reveals, India’s gold import bill fell to a decade low at $7.2 billion in the first half of calendar 2016. Physical demand has been lackluster so far this year as consumers wait for price fall. The level of Rs 28500 per 10 grams, therefore, would provide a good opportunity for buyers to book their share of gold. But, the fall in global markets may not reflect in India fully as rupee would proportionately depreciate along with dollar’s appreciation. But, the price decline ahead of this festive season will definitely change the mood of consumers to help increase buying sentiment.
Q. 4. What would be the possible impact of presidential election in the US on gold?
Ans : Elections always tend to influence financial markets in either a positive or negative way, mainly depending on the general perception as to whether the incumbent in the White House is going to be a change for good, or not as the case may be. There are some interesting historical precedents when it comes to stock market reactions immediately after a presidential election, which in turn, has a definite influence on other financial instruments and markets, such as the price of gold. Every US election staged since 1888 has resulted in average stock market decline of about 0.5% in the first three days of the first new presidential week. The longer term outlook is that stocks have historically fared better over the full four-year term, when a Democratic administration has taken up residence in the White House. The US presidential Election date is November 8th, 2016.
Q. 5. How will interest rate hike by the US Fed impact gold?
Ans : Interest rate hike as expected in December will be negative for gold as investors would seek refuge in alternative investment avenues including real estate, stock market, bond and others for high returns. So, the interest rate hike would trigger a pull back of investment from gold resulting into a sharp fall in gold prices. Since, US labour department has presented a strong manufacturing and job data, speculations are rife for the December rate hike. Markets, however, would also consider other important factors including physical demand, a pull back in monetary easing by the European Central Bank etc. before going for a knee jerk reaction.
Q. 6. What are new product innovations at RSBL?
Ans : RSBL is looking to launch new products this season to lure customers in coins, biscuits with customized products. Currently, RSBL has only two varieties in Platinum i.e. 5gm and 10gm. This Diwali, we have added more denominations in Platinum i.e. 1gm, 2gm, 20gm & 50gm. Furthermore, designer Gold jewellery of 2gm to 10gm have also been added as product extensions and both platinum and gold jewellery facilitate greater investment opportunities and buyback guarantee.
Q. 7. What are your suggestions to the viewers with respect to investing in Gold and Silver, following you?
Ans : I would recommend everyone to invest in Gold & silver with whatever little savings you have as it's the most safest investment that can be inherited and endured too. Government has recently started with new policies such as gold sovereign bonds which is one of the best investment policy. You can loans at 1% in International market at 2.5% interest rate. With the wedding season around the corner, more than 50-60 lakh marriages are taken place throughout a year and a wedding ceremony would by default mean buying gold. Therefore, this would give a rise in the gold imports as well.
New monsoon fund will be allocated and the demand will increase for gold and silver. Whenever the gold prices decline, people should invest more often in Gold, Silver and Platinum as it will give better returns. Last couple of years have not been favourable for Silver and Platinum but as per the current industry standards, Investment in Silver and Platinum are definitely worth earning returns in the years to come.
Profile Note:
Mr. Prithviraj Saremal Kothari is a renowned name in the Gold Silver and Platinum Bullion Industry. He has been instrumental in the development of the bullion market in India.
A commerce graduate from the Mumbai University, Mr. Kothari has been in the family business of gold trading since over 30 years and counting. As one of the promoters, he has almost single handedly steered RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited (RSBL) to the top 10 unlisted public companies in India in terms of sales turnover as per BS1000.
He has given some crucial advice to the Indian Government in helping them make the bullion markets more organized. He has been the pioneer in introducing 'Instant International price based INR denominated bullion trading in India'.
He is also on the advisory committee of the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) and has advised MCX and NCDEX for devising successful gold and silver contracts. In the past, He had served as the President of the Bombay Bullion Association (BBA). As a president, he had played a crucial role in promoting BBA in the international markets.
He has played a vital role in the introduction of gold ETFs in India. Under his vision, RSBL has successfully launched India's first and only electronic over the counter bullion trading system, RSBL SPOT.
He has been felicitated with the prestigious Jain Ratna award twice, once by Honourable President of India, Smt. Pratibhadevi Patil on 13th March, 2012 and second time by Honourable Chief Minister of Maharashtra Mr. Prithviraj Chauhan on 23rd April, 2013 for contributing remarkably towards the well being and upbringing of the Jain fraternity.
Are higher gold prices affecting jewellery sales in India? Prithviraj Kothari, director, RiddiSiddhi Bullions (RSBL), one of India’s largest bullion dealer, says high prices of the yellow metal this year have dent the sale of gold jewellery this festive season with people choosing to delay their purchases.
Apart from selling gold through its online platform, RSBL operates refinery, gold coin mint, online and jewellery manufacturing.
“Jewellery sales in India are falling as people are looking at other options due to high prices of physical gold,” said Prithviraj Kothari. “More people are choosing to buy paper gold for now than traditional method of investing by buying into jewellery.”
Data from the commerce ministry showed that India’s gold import bill fell to a decade low at $7.2 billion in the first half of calendar 2016.
“The level of over Rs 28,500 per 10 grams of gold would provide a good opportunity for buyers,” said Prithviraj Kothari. “But, the fall in global markets may not reflect in India fully as rupee would proportionately depreciate along with the dollar’s appreciation.”
Most jewellers value their stock in gold at current price of the gold bar. For instance, a retail jeweller would exchange a gold bar against the purchase of jewellery from a jewellery manufacturer. All sales proceed from gold jewellery would be converted into gold as well by buying gold bars. Except, money set aside to meet operating costs.
Gold jumped 1.85 per cent on Tuesday to nearly the highest point in one month, following a global move and sharp increase in festive demand locally over the past three days of market closure.
Standard gold was trading at Rs 30,550 per 10g on Tuesday evening, a rise of Rs 555 from the previous closing of Rs 29,995 per 10g on Friday. This level was not seen after October 4. Physical markets remained closed for three days on the occasion of Diwali and the new Samvat year.
Starting with Dhanteras, the bullish sentiment continued on Tuesday, with traders booking afresh amid expectation of a further rise in prices. Gold in London jumped nearly one per cent since Friday to trade at $1,287.8 an ounce. Silver reported a sharp increase of 2.9 per cent to trade early Tuesday at $18.27 an oz.
“Gold in India has jumped due to sharp increase in its prices globally. In London, gold has risen by nearly $14 in the pre-United States election impact. The metal might pause for a small correction in the short term before taking its further leap till the US election,” said Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director, RiddiSiddhi Bullions.
Gold prices hit 1-month high on robust demand
Gitanjali Gems have been luring customers with cheaper substitutes like Lumineux Uno, a new-age metal alloy created through a combination of four precious metals (palladium, platinum, gold and sterling silver) in a single composition. Lumineux Uno has been launched in India for the first time and is available as bars and coins in white, yellow and rose. It is also being used to create 'Princess', a new jewellery collection.
Gitanjali claims Lumineux serves as an alternative for metals like gold/silver or platinum which display wide price fluctuation. This makes an attractive option for small investors who have been looking for more stable and long-term investment choices. As well as for jewellery lovers who yearn for a metal that shines brightly and lasts long but is more affordable.
Following a sharp increase in festive demand, the earlier discount of $15-20 to the imported gold price has evaporated; also bullion dealers have started quoting a $10-15 premium to buyers. Inventory has drained as imports into India remained lacklustre over the past six-seven months on weak demand. In October, however, imports rebounded with overall delivery to Indian purchasers estimated at 70-80 tonnes as compared to an average 25-30 tonnes since March. “This Dhanteras and Diwali season, gold demand was robust as buyers remained absent for over six months from the market. Those who had postponed their purchase have come back with fresh orders. Since the long winter wedding season is setting in, buyers have started placing orders. So, gold and jewellery demand is expected to continue uninterrupted,” said Kumar Jain, Director, Umedmal Tilokichand Zaveri, a bullion dealer and jewellery retailer.
G V Sreedhar, chairman, All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, believes the bullish trend in bullion would continue and gold would hit $1,450 an oz in the international market, translating to Rs 33,500–34,000 per 10g in India. A good monsoon, followed by a positive trend set through implementation of the new pay commission, etc, has revived overall sentiment towards bullion in India, he said.
Silver also glittered on Tuesday in the international markets, trading at $18.27 an oz as compared to $17.76 an oz on Friday.
According to Rahul Mehta, managing director, Silver Emporium, a Zaveri Bazaar-based silver stockist and retailer, the festive season had set a robust trend for the ensuing wedding season. “Silver is in a buying zone now, which offers immense opportunity for consumers,” he said.
Gold and jewellery sales were up 30 per cent this Dhanteras, with jewellers across the country recording brisk business on the auspicious day on the back of favourbale price and a good monsoon.
Dhanteras is considered to be an auspicious day for buying gold, silver and other valuables and is largely celebrated in North and West India.
P N Gadgil Jewellers Managing Director Saurabh Gadgil told PTI that good monsoon, pent up demand of the first half of this year which was affected by jewellers' strike, stable gold prices and long weekend were mainly responsible for the positive consumer demand.
World Gold Council (WGC) MD Somasundaram PR said, "The physical demand is good with good footfalls, which is 30-50 per cent more than last year during this Dhanteras.
"Consumers are back in the market and retailers are all geared up to meet this demand. The level of activity only shows that things have come back to normal in trade as well as at the consumer level," he said.
P C Jewellers MD Balram Garg said, "We are seeing 20 per cent jump in volume and 30 per cent in value terms. The growth is higher in value terms as prices have gone up in the last one year."
This is a conservative estimate, but sales could cross this level, he added. P C Jewellers has around 70 retail outlets across the country.
Waman Hari Pethe Jewellers Director Aditya Pethe said looking at the footfalls the sales this year during the festivals are likely to be 20 per cent more than last year.
"The sales have picked up since the last 15 days and we are expecting 20 per cent growth compared to last year. Rs. 30,000-35,000 ticket size is pushing more this year, especially for wearable jewellery. Marriage jewellery are also in demand as the season will begin from December and this year there are more dates than last year," he added.
Gold prices today fell by Rs. 110 to Rs. 30,590 per 10 grams in the national capital. However the prices were 16.6 per cent higher than Rs. 26,230 on Dhanteras day in 2015.
Silver traded at Rs. 42,700 per kg as compared with Rs. 35,410 per kg last year.
Kalyan Jewellers Executive Director Ramesh Kalyanaraman said, "The advance booking for jewellery is up by 20-25 per cent compared to last year."
"Prices are lower when compared to last two months. Prices are more or less stable now and also demand has revived in view of the good monsoon," he said.
MMTC-PAMP India President (Marketing) Vipin Raina said, "There was robust demand for gold and silver coins as also bars this time as prices are at favourable levels."
"People are buying for investment purpose. We expect 15-20 per cent increase in sales from over the last year," he added.
All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation Chairman Sreedhar G V said according to reports coming from across the country northern region has done extremely well and the sales are estimated to have "20-25 per cent more than last year".
"Overall, the retail sales are expected to be 15-20 per cent more than last year. But, looking at the footfalls, we are expecting 20-25 per cent growth in the north. The growth in the south is likely to be around 10-15 per cent compared to last year," he added.
The investment demand today is likely to be 2-3 per cent more than last year, that for light weight jewellery 15-20 per cent more and diamond 5-10 per cent more than last year, he said.
However, RiddhiSiddhi Bullion Traders Managing Prithviraj Kothari said the sales are likely to be 30-35 per cent less than last year due to the government rule of PAN card on purchase of Rs. 2 lakh and over.
"The government policy on compulsory PAN card for purchase of Rs. 2 lakh and more of jewellery and bullion has become negative for the industry and may result in 30-35 per cent less sales compared to last year," he added.
Gold and jewellery sales were up 30 % this Dhanteras, with jewellers across the country recording brisk business on the auspicious day on the back of favourable price and a good monsoon.
Dhanteras is considered to be an auspicious day for buying gold, silver and other valuables and is largely celebrated in North and West India. P N Gadgil Jewellers Managing Director Saurabh Gadgil told PTI that good monsoon, pent up demand of the first half of this year which was affected by jewellers' strike, stable gold prices and long weekend were mainly responsible for the positive consumer demand. World Gold Council (WGC) MD Somasundaram PR said, "The physical demand is good with good footfalls, which is 30-50 % more than last year during this Dhanteras.
"Consumers are back in the market and retailers are all geared up to meet this demand. The level of activity only shows that things have come back to normal in trade as well as at the consumer level," he said. P C Jewellers MD Balram Garg said, "We are seeing 20 % jump in volume and 30 % in value terms. The growth is higher in value terms as prices have gone up in the last one year." This is a conservative estimate, but sales could cross this level, he added. P C Jewellers has around 70 retail outlets across the country. Waman Hari Pethe Jewellers Director Aditya Pethe said looking at the footfalls the sales this year during the festivals are likely to be 20 % more than last year. "The sales have picked up since the last 15 days and we are expecting 20 % growth compared to last year. Rs 30,000-35,000 ticket size is pushing more this year, especially for wearable jewellery. Marriage jewellery are also in demand as the season will begin from December and this year there are more dates than last year," he added.
Gold prices, on Friday, fell by Rs 110 to Rs 30,590 per 10 grams in the national capital. However the prices were 16.6 % higher than Rs 26,230 on Dhanteras day in 2015. Silver traded at Rs 42,700 per kg as compared with Rs 35,410 per kg last year. Kalyan Jewellers Executive Director Ramesh Kalyanaraman said, "The advance booking for jewellery is up by 20-25 % compared to last year." "Prices are lower when compared to last two months. Prices are more or less stable now and also demand has revived in view of the good monsoon," he said. MMTC-PAMP India President (Marketing) Vipin Raina said, "There was robust demand for gold and silver coins as also bars this time as prices are at favourable levels." "People are buying for investment purpose. We expect 15-20 % increase in sales from over the last year," he added.
All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation Chairman Sreedhar G V said according to reports coming from across the country northern region has done extremely well and the sales are estimated to have "20-25 % more than last year". "Overall, the retail sales are expected to be 15-20 % more than last year. But, looking at the footfalls, we are expecting 20-25 % growth in the north. The growth in the south is likely to be around 10-15 % compared to last year," he added. The investment demand today is likely to be 2-3 % more than last year, that for light weight jewellery 15-20 % more and diamond 5-10 % more than last year, he said. However, RiddhiSiddhi Bullion Traders Managing Director Prithviraj Kothari said the sales are likely to be 30-35 % less than last year due to the government rule of PAN card on purchase of Rs 2 lakh and over. "The government policy on compulsory PAN card for purchase of Rs 2 lakh and more of jewellery and bullion has become negative for the industry and may result in 30-35 % less sales compared to last year," he added.
Goddess Laxmi has been very kind on jewellers this Dhanteras as jewellery sales dominated by gold jewellery, diamond and silver have seen an over 50 per cent growth early in the day.
Compared to last Diwali, gold prices are around 16 per cent hgher this time. but in the near past, they were high initially and moderated from there. The estimate of gold imports doubling from past few months' average to around 65 tonnes is also reflecting the rising demand this Diwali.
Even the market, which was at a discount, has turned into marginal premium making import viable. According to NCDEX data, the average premium yesterday was $1 an ounce.
Technology-driven sales and online sales together indicate an over 100% growth this Dhanteras. Although the share of online in overall sales is not big, this year that segment has earned some traction, with a few e-commerce sites offering huge discounts.
"Since the day has just begun for physical buyers, early trends indicate 50 per cent growth in sales on stabilising prices albeit on highs and estimates of further rise in prices. Our online sales have almost doubled so far in the day, indicating that the entire season sales are likely to grow 35-40 per cent," said Mehul Choksi, Managing Director, Gitanjali Gems.
Apart from selling through its own online venture, Jewelsouk.com, Gitanjali also sales jewellery and coins made of precious metals through Snapdeal and Amazon websites to name a few. The company sales physical jewellery through nearly 3,000 points of sale (POS) too.
Gitanjali also sells jewellery made of an alloy of precious metals that it claims is cheaper than individual precious metals. Diamond-studded jewellery is also getting traction this year.
Echoing a similar response, Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director, said, "Overall sales are robust on Dhanteras, with an estimated rise of 35-40 per cent. "Overall sales during the festive week ending the Bhaubeej, however, are estimated to remain weak compared with last year," he added.
The trend in jewellery sales on the Diwali week assumes significance as this sets the sentiment for the entire wedding season.
According to Tanya Rstogi, director IBJA and a director, Lala Jugarram jewelers, from UP, "according to lunar calendar, demand resumed yesterday and within jewellery and coins we see larger preference for jewellery than coins as past two quarters were weak for gold demand while this time in past few weeks prices have moderated. As a result suppressed demand has started coming in with good show in rural areas due to higher farm income."
The Diwali week contributes nearly 15-20 per cent of India's overall gold demand of over 900 tonnes.
Public sector major MMTC has joined hands with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Andhra Bank to retail gold coins with a new buyback option.
Besides its own outlets across the country, MMTC has tied up with Indian Overseas Bank, Vijaya Bank, Federal Bank and YES Bank to sell gold coins in denominations of 5 gm and 10 gm coin and 20 gm bar.
MMTC has also announced a transparent buyback of gold coins made of recycled gold. It will repurchase the gold coins if they are given back intact in the same tamper-proof packaging with the original invoice at MMTC outlets. Gold coins will be bought back at the prevailing gold price, providing much needed liquidity for customers buying Indian Gold Coins, MMTC said in a statement on Thursday.
With the new partnerships, the network selling the sovereign gold coin will touch 300 outlets during Dhanteras - an auspicious occasion to buy gold - that falls on Friday.
Launched last year, the Indian Gold Coin has the national emblem Ashoka Chakra engraved on one side and Mahatma Gandhi on the other side. Hallmarked by the Bureau of Indian Standards, the 999 fineness coins are of 24 karat purity and are minted by the India Government Mint in Mumbai and Kolkata, said MMTC.
Ved Prakash, Chairman and Managing Director, MMTC, said in the last one year of the launch of the Indian gold coin, seven leading banks in India have started retailing the coins and would partner more banks soon to widen the distribution.
The purchaser of the gold coin would not only contribute towards the country's economic growth but also aid in recycling gold through the transparent buy-back option available at MMTC showrooms, he said.
Prithviraj Kothari, Director, RiddiSiddhi Bullions, said gold and silver prices were likely to remain subdued this calendar year as the dollar strengthens against major global currencies, besides a host of other weak fundamentals acting against precious metals. With some intermittent volatility, he said, gold may touch $1400 an ounce by December-end, translating to Rs. 30,050 per 10 gm in India.
The gold import bill fell to a decade-low of $7.2 billion in the first six months of this year, according to Commerce Ministry data.
Gold demand has been lacklustre so far this year as consumers expect prices to fall further.
"A price level of Rs. 28,500 per 10 gm will provide a good opportunity for buyers," he said.
However, the fall in global gold prices may not reflect in India as the rupee is expected to depreciate proportionately against the dollar, he said.
Anchor: How significant is goods and services tax (GST) for bullion industry?
Mr. Kothari: Implementation of GST should be expedited for all round growth of our economy including supply chain, sourcing and distribution decisions, inventory cost, cash flows, pricing policy, accounting system and transactions management. The government should levy on bullion flat GST which would replace most indirect taxes like small local taxes, LBT, octroi etc currently in place. Not only that, there will be an ease in documentation too.
Anchor: Government of India has focused reducing import of gold. Has time come to focus on gold mining in India?
Mr. Kothari: India is rich in mineral resources. But, because of poor research and development (R&D), gold mining has been at bay. Despite huge resources, total production from domestic mines constitutes between 1-3 tonnes out of India’s estimated consumption of 1000 tonnes. On the other hand, China boosted its gold refining business after allow single-window clearance along with fiscal and infrastructure incentives which has put the industry on fast track. China reported total gold production at 451.8 tonnes in 2014, up by 5-52 per cent from the previous year, and become the largest gold producer in the world eighth year consecutively. India needs to focus on R&D in an effective way to reduce dependence on import and therefore, foreign direct investment (FDI) in R&D should be expedited. Moreover there are lot of issues with mining like the local MLA issue, local population of a particular area concerns etc. Due to these issues, mining has lot of limitations.
Anchor: With such issues, mining will remain just a dream for India.
Mr. Kothari: See, today somebody invests and starts mining and then people come forward with a stay on it. So who will invest money in India? The government should provide single window, frame only one policy that clearing, environment, all will be issued by the central government. State government will have no say. The emerging revenue issues should be decided state versus centre.
Anchor: Despite repeated request, the government has not yet reduced import duty on gold. Do you expect the same in the upcoming budget?
Mr. Kothari: Bullion dealers and jewellery manufacturers have sent several representations to the government for reduction in import duty from the existing 10% to 2% to provide a fillip to the domestic jewellery sector. Domestic jewellery buyers stayed away from fresh purchase since long amid expectations of cut in import duty.
Anchor: You have said earlier something that commodity exchanges are the best tools for hedging the price risk? Is the current system of trade sufficient or the government should do something else?
Mr. Kothari: See, in the last conference we held, our Shaktikant Dasji had said that there should be a bullion bank. Indian Bullion Jewellers Association, I and others together worked out on the concept and have tied-up with BSE to establish an Exchange and Bullion Bank, subject to RBI clarification. So, if these things happen, the disparity the people have in the market today will reduce very much. According to me, if the bullion bank is there, the prevalent difference of parity and disparity (will be reduced to great extent). Sometimes, the premium becomes 13 Dollars, 20 Dollars, 30 Dollars and sometimes even minus 30 Dollars. So, during the minus period we cannot re-export them. So, in my opinion, the government should open a bullion bank here wherein if you deposit gold, you will also get benefit over that and (if) you want to re-export that, you can re-export through the Re-export Bank. Thus, to great extent, there would be support to the economy and in a way, the economy will boom.
Anchor: Take intercepts from your last interview, you had stated that Gold Bond and Monetization scheme are very good initiatives from the government. But the stats portray a different picture. What the government should adopt to make it more successful?
Mr. Kothari: See, the initiatives by the government are very good. Until today, no government has taken such initiatives. One problem that is hindering its success is the gold deposit scheme. Today gold is lying in every household. If you ask them its sources it is very difficult for them to provide as it could be lying for ten years, twenty years, thirty years, forty years, since their grandparents time. Thus the government should do something like, you may say, a concession should be given up to 500 grams of deposit. Second emerging issue is that there of the jewellery. When the jewellery is melted there is a loss in the elements. Some steps would have to be taken to take into account the loss issue. With respect to the sovereign bond scheme, liquidity in the market is tight. Otherwise, the scheme is very good wherein 2.75% interest is also available. But with it, currently the market conditions aren’t favoring it. For example, the prevailing price was 27,000 and price of that sovereign bond was 26,000, even in that some 2700 plus crores rupees came. Thus, with this it is clearly visible that there is very much liquidity crisis in the market.
Anchor: To sum it up, any additional points to expect from the government with respect to BUDGET 2016?
Mr. Kothari: I hope that the ban on gold trading levied by the government on SEZ (Special Economic Zone) should be lifted. It would boost the exports in a major way. I hope that bullion bank and bullion exchange only for gold wherein the government itself would borrow from and lend into.
Anchor: Thank you so much Sir for your time. If you could throw some light on the Trade range; for Gold price during the Budget week and thereafter?
Mr. Kothari: With the geopolitical tensions and the economies faltering, I do see a good support for the Gold prices for a while. USD 1070 should act as a strong support while USD 1300 should act as a strong resistance. In rupee terms INR 25,500 to INR 33000 should be a trade range to look for in Gold prices.
Thank you!
Profile Note:
Mr. Prithviraj Saremal Kothari is a renowned name in the Gold Silver and Platinum Bullion Industry. He has been instrumental in the development of the bullion market in India.
A commerce graduate from the Mumbai University, Mr. Kothari has been in the family business of gold trading since over 30 years and counting. As one of the promoters, he has almost single handedly steered RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited (RSBL) to the top 10 unlisted public companies in India in terms of sales turnover as per BS1000.
He has given some crucial advice to the Indian Government in helping them make the bullion markets more organized. He has been the pioneer in introducing ''Instant International price based INR denominated bullion trading in India'.
He is also on the advisory committee of the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) and has advised MCX and NCDEX for devising successful gold and silver contracts. In the past, He had served as the President of the Bombay Bullion Association (BBA). As a president, he had played a crucial role in promoting BBA in the international markets.
He has played a vital role in the introduction of gold ETFs in India. Under his vision, RSBL has successfully launched India's first and only electronic over the counter bullion trading system, RSBL SPOT.
He has been felicitated with the prestigious Jain Ratna award twice, once by Honorable President of India, Smt. Pratibhadevi Patil on 13th March, 2012 and second time by Honorable Chief Minister of Maharashtra Mr. Prithviraj Chauhan on 23rd April, 2013 for contributing remarkably towards the well being and upbringing of the Jain fraternity.
Mr. Prithviraj Kothari is a renowned name in the gold, silver and platinum bullion industry. He is the Managing Director of Riddhi Sidhhi Bullion Ltd. His interview was taken by a trade representative for his predictions on Gold for the year 2016.
After 2 consecutive years of negative returns, what is your Gold Price Forecast for 2016? Prithviraj Kothari: I do agree that since couple of years there is a downward trajectory with respect to Gold prices, since it had been increasing for almost 11 odd years. But according to me a range of $1050 - $1070 an oz is the cost to the mines to procure Gold. Looking at that figure, I find it difficult for the price to go below this range. I see an increase to the extent of 7% to 8% compared to last year in the year 2016.
How will it translate in the Rupee term? Prithviraj Kothari: In rupee term, gold price may hover between Rs 24,000 and Rs 30,000 per 10 grams.
What impact do you envisage on gold following the US Fed’s interest rate hike? Prithviraj Kothari: A 25 bps interest rate hike after a decade in 2015 followed by four such hikes in 2016 by the US Fed has already been factored in with the price of Gold. If you see the price of Gold eventually appreciated when the rate hike took place. A bottom line could be $1000 to $1050 at the most in the line with the mining costs.
What impact do you see of high import duty on gold import into India? Prithviraj Kothari: Indian population is around 125 crore with consumption less than 1gram, bringing import figure to 850-900 tons. With present import duty of 10%, it has created big gap between International price and Indian price. This import duty almost comes to INR 250,000 per kilo. Usually, import of gold has been in the range of 800 to 900 tons per year. Last year gold smuggling was around 200 tons. The increased price gap may give rise to increase in gold malpractices.
Do you see any impact of Government related Gold schemes? Would they be beneficial? Prithviraj Kothari: I am positive with government efforts & schemes. Gold Monetization and Gold Sovereign Bond schemes are good. Gold Monetization scheme will be worthwhile, if it can draw 1000 tons or even 500 tons of gold from temples, public etc. will also have impact on international price. It should happen gradually.
India’s gold import has been diverted towards Dore. Would it really help gold jewellery industry at large? Prithviraj Kothari: It depends on import. Dore import is processed in limited refineries to manufacture pure gold. These refineries import Dore at $2 lower. Those jewelers will be benefitted by $3 to 4, who make ornaments by buying gold from refineries.
What is your final take on ending of 2015 and at the beginning of year 2016? Prithviraj Kothari: 2016 will be good for the trade. It may create bullion history and it may be ‘Golden Period’ for all traders.
Photo Caption: Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director of Riddhi Siddhi Bullions Ltd.
Video Caption: Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL : Gold Price Prediction for 2016
Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director of Riddhi Sidhhi Bullion Ltd is a renowned name in the gold, silver and platinum bullion industry. Here are excerpts from the interview when Mr. Kothari was asked about Gold forecasts in India:
After 2 consecutive years of negative returns, what is your Gold Price Forecast for 2016? Prithviraj Kothari: I do agree that since couple of years there is a downward trajectory with respect to Gold prices, since it had been increasing for almost 11 odd years. But according to me a range of $1050 - $1070 an oz is the cost to the mines to procure Gold. Looking at that figure, I find it difficult for the price to go below this range. I see an increase to the extent of 7% to 8% compared to last year in the year 2016.
How will it translate in the Rupee term? Prithviraj Kothari: In rupee term, gold price may hover between Rs 24,000 and Rs 30,000 per 10 grams.
What impact do you envisage on gold following the US Fed’s interest rate hike? Prithviraj Kothari: A 25 bps interest rate hike after a decade in 2015 followed by four such hikes in 2016 by the US Fed has already been factored in with the price of Gold. If you see the price of Gold eventually appreciated when the rate hike took place. A bottom line could be $1000 to $1050 at the most in the line with the mining costs.
What impact do you see of high import duty on gold import into India? Prithviraj Kothari: Indian population is around 125 crore with consumption less than 1gram, bringing import figure to 850-900 tons. With present import duty of 10%, it has created big gap between International price and Indian price. This import duty almost comes to INR 250,000 per kilo. Usually, import of gold has been in the range of 800 to 900 tons per year. Last year gold smuggling was around 200 tons. The increased price gap may give rise to increase in gold malpractices.
Do you see any impact of Government related Gold schemes? Would they be beneficial? Prithviraj Kothari: I am positive with government efforts & schemes. Gold Monetization and Gold Sovereign Bond schemes are good. Gold Monetization scheme will be worthwhile, if it can draw 1000 tons or even 500 tons of gold from temples, public etc. will also have impact on international price. It should happen gradually.
India’s gold import has been diverted towards Dore. Would it really help gold jewellery industry at large? Prithviraj Kothari: It depends on import. Dore import is processed in limited refineries to manufacture pure gold. These refineries import Dore at $2 lower. Those jewelers will be benefitted by $3 to 4, who make ornaments by buying gold from refineries.
What is your final take on ending of 2015 and at the beginning of year 2016? Prithviraj Kothari: 2016 will be good for the trade. It may create bullion history and it may be ‘Golden Period’ for all traders.
