Pages

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Gold, silver prices surge as reaction to demonetisation and Trump win

Gold reclaimed the Rs 31,000-mark at the domestic bullion market after fresh offtake from investors and stockists, driven by the black money crackdown in India and a surge in global cues amid Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election.

Silver reclaimed the Rs 45,000 mark by surging Rs 1,390 a kg on heavy speculative rally.

Globally, gold prices jumped nearly five per cent on the Donald Trump victory in the US, prompting a dive in stocks and the dollar.

In India, standard gold (99.5 purity) spurted by Rs 815 to end at Rs 31,145 per 10g, a  level not seen since September 20.

Pure gold (99.9 purity) also climbed by a similar margin to close at Rs 31,295 per 10 grams as compared to Rs 30,480 earlier. Silver (.999 fineness) finished at Rs 45,370 a kg from Rs 43,980 on Tuesday; the current level was not seen since September 12.



London spot gold vaulted to a six-week high of $1,337.40 an ounce, up nearly five per cent.

That apart, despite the government having scrapped legal tender of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes, jewellers at the benchmark Zaveri Bazaar here accepted these notes on Wednesday, at a huge premium in the gold price of 10-15 per cent. Deals were also reported at up to 50 per cent premium against high value notes on Wednesday. Noted were also accepted for delivery after two-three days. Many jewellers in the Mumbai suburbs kept their shops open till midnight on Tujesday and sold jewellery with a massive price premium (or discount in cash dealing with Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes).

Many consumers had panicked on Tuesday evening immediately after the announcement and rushed to jewellery shop in the vicinity with their cash. Trade sources believe some small retailers ran out of physical stocks. Many jewellers were quoting a gold price at Rs 34,500–35,000 (for 10g) in early Tuesday trade and making backdated bills. Traders were also heard quoting gold prices up to Rs 45,000 per 10g to panic customers.

“Nothing has changed since yesterday. The acceptance of Rs. 500/1,000 currencies continues, which we would deposit in the bank for their replacement with new ones,” said a jeweller in Zaveri Bazaar, on condition of anonymity.

In the official market, gold initially jumped around Rs 1,000 per 10g in pre-opening trade on Wednesday, following a 3.5 per cent increase in global markets on the Trump victory. Bullion, however, lost half its initial gain in afternoon trade in London, to quote at $1,303 an oz after a high of $1,367 an oz in the morning, following a sharp decline in the dollar against major global currencies. The dollar also recovered part of its initial loss.

At Zaveri Bazaar in the afternoon, the premium for official gold was $12, which on closing had moderated to $3 an oz.

Following reports of what jewellers had been up to, Sreedhar G V, chairman of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, issued an advisory: “We urge jewellers to exercise restraint, caution and follow government-approved norms for transactions during the next few months.”

'The government's decision to ban old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes will see people having more faith in the precious metal than currency notes. Though, the measure is going to be good for the country,” said Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director, RiddiSiddhi Bullions.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Demonetisation: Jewellery sales take hit at Zaveri Bazaar

City's wholesale and retail market for bullion, Zaveri Bazaar, witnessed lacklustre trade today as sale of gold jewellery slumped owing to scrapping of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes by government as part of its clamp down on black money and corruption.

"After brisk buying at higher rates for gold till late night on Tuesday, the bullion market witnessed lacklustre trading activity today following ban on Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes. People are withholding their purchases of gold jewellery till higher denomination notes will come under circulation," said Ajit Shah, a leading jeweller.


"People are withholding their purchases of gold jewellery till higher denomination notes will come under circulation," said Ajit Shah, a leading jeweller."


The industry is already passing through bad phase due to lower demand despite ongoing wedding season. We hope things will improve in the near future, he said.

The demand for gold during 'Dhanteras', the gold buying festival and Diwali, remained moderate compared to last year.

Retailers in the city blame the slowdown in economy to global factors.

After a muted Navratri and Dusshera, gold demand saw a slight pickup, but it was mostly on the back of discounts and festive offers.

"Government's decision to ban old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes will see people having more faith in the precious metal than the currency notes. Though, the measure has created havoc for a little while, it's going to be good for country," said RiddiSiddhi Bullions Managing Director Mr. Prithviraj Kothari

But perhaps, the biggest factor affecting domestic demand is the continued push towards regulation and accountability that the government is levelling in general, including the gold market.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Gold and Silver Price Forecast for this Festive Season by Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. (RSBL)






Q. 1.  How has gold demand trend made a difference with monsoon rainfalls in India and how has it affected the forecast upon the impact of physical gold and silver?

Ans : Finance Minister Arun Jaitley surprised the market by keeping the import duty intact and imposing an excise duty on gold jewellery sales from March 1, leading to a one-and-a-half-month strike by jewellers resulting into a fall in gold demand in India. However, falling interest rates and a better return from bullion so far in 2016 could lure more consumers. So, price fall would trigger more fresh demand coming in resulting into physical offtake to go up. The year 2016 is expected to end in a high note in terms of physical demand of gold.

Past 6 months, gold import figure for half yearly was almost 7.5 billion dollar, which means approximately 180 tonnes. As compared to last year, there is a 50-60% drop down in the market for reasons such as pan card issue, excise duty issue, 10% custom duty which has hugely affected the demand.

After 2 years of El Nino effect, this year monsoon has fared really well with 5% overall rise as compared to last year. This would surely lead to an increase in Rural demand of Yellow metal.

During sowing season, farmers normally sell gold for purchasing of seeds and fertilizers. With normal monsoon, however, they get better kharif output and expectation of higher rabi output. So, normal monsoon rainfalls always give higher chance for consumer demand of gold to improve. Gold demand has been lackluster so far this year with the government’s strict norms on bringing jewellers under excise duty and also mandatory PAN (permanent account number) requirement for cash jewellery purchase beyond a limit. All these acted as a negative factor for gold purchase. But, with normal monsoon rainfalls giving more disposable income at the hands of farmers, who hold nearly 70 per cent of India’s gold holding, would certainly improve demand going forward.


Q. 2. Options trading on MCX is on cards. How is it beneficial for the industry?

Ans : I have been saying this since 3-4 years during the Pre-budget comments and finally it seems that the Options product would be finally introduced. It will be a boon for a bullion trader and jeweller. By using this instrument they can hedge their future position and in a way provide the necessary risk cover. An investor will also be highly benefitted from this instrument. He/she will get a chance to invest in a larger quantity of metal with a lower investment and reap benefits till the expiry date.


Q. 3. What is your forecast for gold and silver prices for Diwali & New Year and how is it beneficial to Indian consumers?

Ans : Gold and silver prices are likely to remain subdued this calendar year on strengthening dollar against major global currencies and a host of other weak fundamentals acting against it. With some intermittent volatility, gold may touch $1200 by the current calendar year end translating thereby Rs 28500 per 10 grams by December. Following the European Central Bank’s official announcement of a withdrawal of bond purchase programme prior to the end of quantitative easing, the dollar is likely to remain strong against major global currencies. With Brexit fear mounting against the United Kingdom with the country’ possible departure from the European Union by 2019, pound sterling has already hit 31-year low. So, strengthening US dollar would create selling pressure in gold resulting into its price to remain weak by Diwali and the New Year.

Indian jewellery sales have fallen since the start of the year, hit by higher gold prices and delayed purchase decisions by consumers who had hoped for a cut in India’s 10 per cent import duty on gold in the national budget. Gold demand in India has remained lower this year with consumers opting for alternative investment avenues including paper gold. So, physical demand of gold was lower so far this year. As data from the Commerce Ministry reveals, India’s gold import bill fell to a decade low at $7.2 billion in the first half of calendar 2016. Physical demand has been lackluster so far this year as consumers wait for price fall. The level of Rs 28500 per 10 grams, therefore, would provide a good opportunity for buyers to book their share of gold. But, the fall in global markets may not reflect in India fully as rupee would proportionately depreciate along with dollar’s appreciation. But, the price decline ahead of this festive season will definitely change the mood of consumers to help increase buying sentiment.


Q. 4.  What would be the possible impact of presidential election in the US on gold?

Ans : Elections always tend to influence financial markets in either a positive or negative way, mainly depending on the general perception as to whether the incumbent in the White House is going to be a change for good, or not as the case may be. There are some interesting historical precedents when it comes to stock market reactions immediately after a presidential election, which in turn, has a definite influence on other financial instruments and markets, such as the price of gold. Every US election staged since 1888 has resulted in average stock market decline of about 0.5% in the first three days of the first new presidential week. The longer term outlook is that stocks have historically fared better over the full four-year term, when a Democratic administration has taken up residence in the White House. The US presidential Election date is November 8th, 2016.


Q. 5. How will interest rate hike by the US Fed impact gold?

Ans : Interest rate hike as expected in December will be negative for gold as investors would seek refuge in alternative investment avenues including real estate, stock market, bond and others for high returns. So, the interest rate hike would trigger a pull back of investment from gold resulting into a sharp fall in gold prices. Since, US labour department has presented a strong manufacturing and job data, speculations are rife for the December rate hike. Markets, however, would also consider other important factors including physical demand, a pull back in monetary easing by the European Central Bank etc. before going for a knee jerk reaction.


Q. 6.  What are new product innovations at RSBL?

Ans : RSBL is looking to launch new products this season to lure customers in coins, biscuits with customized products. Currently, RSBL has only two varieties in Platinum i.e. 5gm and 10gm. This Diwali, we have added more denominations in Platinum i.e. 1gm, 2gm, 20gm & 50gm. Furthermore, designer Gold jewellery of 2gm to 10gm have also been added as product extensions and both platinum and gold jewellery facilitate greater investment opportunities and buyback guarantee.


Q. 7. What are your suggestions to the viewers with respect to investing in Gold and Silver, following you?

Ans : I would recommend everyone to invest in Gold & silver with whatever little savings you have as it's the most safest investment that can be inherited and endured too. Government has recently started with new policies such as gold sovereign bonds which is one of the best investment policy. You can loans at 1% in International market at 2.5% interest rate. With the wedding season around the corner, more than 50-60 lakh marriages are taken place throughout a year and a wedding ceremony would by default mean buying gold. Therefore, this would give a rise in the gold imports as well.

New monsoon fund will be allocated and the demand will increase for gold and silver. Whenever the gold prices decline, people should invest more often in Gold, Silver and Platinum as it will give better returns. Last couple of years have not been favourable for Silver and Platinum but as per the current industry standards, Investment in Silver and Platinum are definitely worth earning returns in the years to come.

Profile Note:

Mr. Prithviraj Saremal Kothari is a renowned name in the Gold Silver and Platinum Bullion Industry. He has been instrumental in the development of the bullion market in India.

A commerce graduate from the Mumbai University, Mr. Kothari has been in the family business of gold trading since over 30 years and counting. As one of the promoters, he has almost single handedly steered RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited (RSBL) to the top 10 unlisted public companies in India in terms of sales turnover as per BS1000.

He has given some crucial advice to the Indian Government in helping them make the bullion markets more organized. He has been the pioneer in introducing 'Instant International price based INR denominated bullion trading in India'.

He is also on the advisory committee of the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) and has advised MCX and NCDEX for devising successful gold and silver contracts. In the past, He had served as the President of the Bombay Bullion Association (BBA). As a president, he had played a crucial role in promoting BBA in the international markets.

He has played a vital role in the introduction of gold ETFs in India. Under his vision, RSBL has successfully launched India's first and only electronic over the counter bullion trading system, RSBL SPOT.

He has been felicitated with the prestigious Jain Ratna award twice, once by Honourable President of India, Smt. Pratibhadevi Patil on 13th March, 2012 and second time by Honourable Chief Minister of Maharashtra Mr. Prithviraj Chauhan on 23rd April, 2013 for contributing remarkably towards the well being and upbringing of the Jain fraternity.

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/prithviraj.kothari

Twitter: https://twitter.com/prithvirajrsbl

Blogger: http://riddisiddhibullionsltd.blogspot.in/

Website: http://www.rsbl.co.in/

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9IEjM6AhPo&ab_channel=PrithvirajKothari 

Google+ URL: http://www.google.com/+PrithvirajKothari

Photo Caption: Mr. Prithviraj Kothari – Managing Director - RiddhiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.

Video Caption: Festive Forecast by Prithviraj Kothari – RSBL



More links for same article : 

http://www.vcsdata.com
http://andhranews.net
http://ians.in
http://ibtn9.com
http://news.webindia123.com
http://www.biznews.in
http://www.dsij.in
http://www.finalaya.com
http://www.telegraphindia.com
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com
http://abhitaknews.com
http://businessfortnight.com
http://businessheadlines.in
http://businessinvestments.in
http://businessobserver.in
http://businessreporter.in
http://corporateheadlines.in
http://doababusiness.in
http://eurasiawire.com
http://greenlichen.com
http://india.vc
http://indshare.com
http://industrynewswire.in
http://investmentguruindia.com
http://keralabiznews.com
http://metropolitantimes.in
http://news.youngbiztimes.com
http://theceo.in
http://uttarakhandnewsnetwork.com
http://www.apnnews.com
http://www.businesssandesh.in
http://www.estrade.in
http://www.financial-marketresearch.com
http://www.freepressjournal.in
http://www.indiainfoline.com
http://www.konkanvision.com
http://www.newsr.in
http://www.newsticker.in
http://www.onenewspage.com
http://www.researchnewstoday.com
http://www.smarttechtoday.com
http://www.varindia.com

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

High gold prices hit jewellery sales this year, says RSBL

Are higher gold prices affecting jewellery sales in India? Prithviraj Kothari, director, RiddiSiddhi Bullions (RSBL), one of India’s largest bullion dealer, says high prices of the yellow metal this year have dent the sale of gold jewellery this festive season with people choosing to delay their purchases.

Apart from selling gold through its online platform, RSBL operates refinery, gold coin mint, online and jewellery manufacturing.

“Jewellery sales in India are falling as people are looking at other options due to high prices of physical gold,” said Prithviraj Kothari. “More people are choosing to buy paper gold for now than traditional method of investing by buying into jewellery.”

Data from the commerce ministry showed that India’s gold import bill fell to a decade low at $7.2 billion in the first half of calendar 2016.

“The level of over Rs 28,500 per 10 grams of gold would provide a good opportunity for buyers,” said Prithviraj Kothari. “But, the fall in global markets may not reflect in India fully as rupee would proportionately depreciate along with the dollar’s appreciation.”

Most jewellers value their stock in gold at current price of the gold bar. For instance, a retail jeweller would exchange a gold bar against the purchase of jewellery from a jewellery manufacturer. All sales proceed from gold jewellery would be converted into gold as well by buying gold bars. Except, money set aside to meet operating costs.

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Gold prices hit 1-month high on robust demand

Gold jumped 1.85 per cent on Tuesday to nearly the highest point in one month, following a global move and sharp increase in festive demand locally over the past three days of market closure.

Standard gold was trading at Rs 30,550 per 10g on Tuesday evening, a rise of Rs 555 from the previous closing of Rs 29,995 per 10g on Friday. This level was not seen after October 4. Physical markets remained closed for three days on the occasion of Diwali and the new Samvat year.

Starting with Dhanteras, the bullish sentiment continued on Tuesday, with traders booking afresh amid expectation of a further rise in prices. Gold in London jumped nearly one per cent since Friday to trade at $1,287.8 an ounce. Silver reported a sharp increase of 2.9 per cent to trade early Tuesday at $18.27 an oz.



“Gold in India has jumped due to sharp increase in its prices globally. In London, gold has risen by nearly $14 in the pre-United States election impact. The metal might pause for a small correction in the short term before taking its further leap till the US election,” said Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director, RiddiSiddhi Bullions.

Gold prices hit 1-month high on robust demand
Gitanjali Gems have been luring customers with cheaper substitutes like Lumineux Uno, a new-age metal alloy created through a combination of four precious metals (palladium, platinum, gold and sterling silver) in a single composition. Lumineux Uno has been launched in India for the first time and is available as bars and coins in white, yellow and rose. It is also being used to create 'Princess', a new jewellery collection.

Gitanjali claims Lumineux serves as an alternative for metals like gold/silver or platinum which display wide price fluctuation. This makes an attractive option for small investors who have been looking for more stable and long-term investment choices. As well as for jewellery lovers who yearn for a metal that shines brightly and lasts long but is more affordable.

Following a sharp increase in festive demand, the earlier discount of $15-20 to the imported gold price has evaporated; also bullion dealers have started quoting a $10-15 premium to buyers. Inventory has drained as imports into India remained lacklustre over the past six-seven months on weak demand. In October, however, imports rebounded with overall delivery to Indian purchasers estimated at 70-80 tonnes as compared to an average 25-30 tonnes since March. “This Dhanteras and Diwali season, gold demand was robust as buyers remained absent for over six months from the market. Those who had postponed their purchase have come back with fresh orders. Since the long winter wedding season is setting in, buyers have started placing orders. So, gold and jewellery demand is expected to continue uninterrupted,” said Kumar Jain, Director, Umedmal Tilokichand Zaveri, a bullion dealer and jewellery retailer.

G V Sreedhar, chairman, All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, believes the bullish trend in bullion would continue and gold would hit $1,450 an oz in the international market, translating to Rs 33,500–34,000 per 10g in India. A good monsoon, followed by a positive trend set through implementation of the new pay commission, etc, has revived overall sentiment towards bullion in India, he said.

Silver also glittered on Tuesday in the international markets, trading at $18.27 an oz as compared to $17.76 an oz on Friday.

According to Rahul Mehta, managing director, Silver Emporium, a Zaveri Bazaar-based silver stockist and retailer, the festive season had set a robust trend for the ensuing wedding season. “Silver is in a buying zone now, which offers immense opportunity for consumers,” he said.